March Madness: How to win your NCAA men’s tournament pool and a look at what history tells us

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Преди да стартираме, отвод от отговорност: вашата скоба евентуално ще бъде неразбория до събота.

или до петък. And let’s be honest, some of us will out of the running by Thursday night.

Welcome back to the world’s largest lottery, the NCAA Tournament and all of its various bracket pools that millions of people will be joining over the next few days. Някои ще играят за развлечение, други за пари. No matter the stakes, we encourage you to remember that you are not an expert — and even the experts didn’t know much this season.

Florida started the year ranked No. 21; Gators са семе №1 за шампионата. Свети Йоан беше необятен; Клубът на Рик Питино е семе №2. Северна Каролина беше №9 в предсезонната анкета на AP; the Tar Heels barely got into the field and left a bunch of analysts angry about it happening.

Before we begin trying to figure out who’ll win this thing, a few policies:

Избягвайте № 5 семена

скърбя, Орегон, Мичиган, Клемсън и Мемфис. Връщайки се към 1979 година, когато цялостното поле за шампионата за мъже на NCAA беше засято за първи път. there has never been a No. 5 seed that has won the national championship.

Weirdly, this rule also holds true in the NBA — all the No. 5 seeds there over the years have all fallen short of the title as well.

No double-digit loss teams

Only three teams in tournament history — N.C. State in 1983, Villanova in 1985 and Kansas in 1988 — entered the NCAAs with at least 10 losses and went on to win the title.

So, again, our apologies to Creighton, Texas A&M, St. Francis, Alabama State, Ole Miss, North Carolina, Marquette, Bryant, American, Mount St. Mary’s, Mississippi State, Baylor, Arizona, Vanderbilt, SIU Edwardsville, Georgia, Purdue, Illinois, Kentucky, Troy, UCLA, Wofford, Norfolk State, UConn, Oklahoma, Missouri, Kansas, Arkansas and Omaha. История, в която споделя, че няма да спечелите всичко.

Изненадващ екип ще направи финалната четворка

разстройства ще се случи. Hence, the Madness part of March.

If recent form holds, there’s going to be a surprise team — or two, or three even — in the Final Four. Там имаше семе № 11 предходната година. Имаше две 5 семена и 9 семена там през 2023 година 8 семена годината преди този момент. 11 семена годината преди този момент.

и това не е единствено скорошно събитие. From 2011 through 2018, there were nine instances of teams being a 7 seed or higher making the Final Four — three No. 7 seeds, two No. 11 seeds, two No. 8 seeds, a No. 9 and a No. 10 all headed to the national semifinals in that span.

Четвъртък и петък може да са бонкери

Всички знаят, че 5 -те против 12 мача водят до разстройства. But those aren’t the only ones.

There were 11 wins by teams seeded No. 9 through No. 12 last year in the round of 64 — with two No. 12s, a No. 13 and a No. 14 among them in 2024.

Remember, there have been nine instances of a No. 15 or a No. 16 seed getting to Round 2 since 2012. It’s not impossible anymore.

But in the end...

Не претривайте това. Наистина положителните тимове са в действителност положителни заради причина. През последните 45 години 41 възможни първенци са били засети №1, № 2 или № 3. Ще стигнат ли всички до Сан Антонио? Вероятно не. Но един или два, най -малко, евентуално ще стигне до там.

За да спечелите басейна си, би трябвало да ударите разстройствата. Победителите в басейна са направени там. But if you get to the Final Four on your sheet of paper (or more likely, your screen) and see a 9 seed, two 11 seeds and a 14 seed as the last ones standing, perhaps start over.

Round of 64 picks

South: Auburn, Louisville, Michigan, Yale, Ole Miss, Iowa State, New Mexico, Michigan State.

East: Duke, Mississippi State, Liberty, Akron, BYU, Wisconsin, Vanderbilt, Alabama.

Midwest: Houston, Gonzaga, McNeese, High Point, Illinois, Kentucky, UCLA, Tennessee.

West: Florida, UConn, Memphis, Maryland, Drake, UNC Wilmington, Arkansas, St. John’s.

Round of 32 picks

South: Auburn, Michigan, Iowa State, Michigan State.

East: Duke, Akron, BYU, Alabama.

Midwest: Gonzaga, McNeese, Kentucky, Tennessee.

West: Florida, Maryland, Drake, St. John’s.

Regional semifinal picks

South: Michigan, Michigan State.

East: Duke, Алабама.

Средния Запад: Гонзага, Тенеси.

Запад: Флорида, Сейнт Джон.

Regional final picks

South: Dusty May going back to the Final Four in Year 1 at Michigan would be an incredible story, but Michigan State — Tom Izzo in March gets a slight nod.

East: If Cooper Flagg is healthy, Duke should be fine.

Midwest: Mark Few is an absolute legend. Никога не спи на Загс... Гонзага в разстройство.

Запад: Флорида беше толкоз добра, колкото всеки през целия сезон. But Rick Pitino, it just feels like his year... St. John’s.

The Final Four

This leaves us with Michigan State vs. St. John’s, Duke vs. Gonzaga.

Michigan State vs. Duke in the final.

We’re all-in on Cooper Flagg being healthy here... Duke wins it Всички.

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AP March Madness: https://apnews.com/hub/march-madness